hypotheticalhurricanesfandomcom-20200216-history
Hurricane Brad
Hurricane Brad was a deadly, destructive tropical cyclone, that affected the Great Lakes U.S states and Canada. Being another off-season tropical cyclone, this caught many people off-guard. Meteorological History An area of disturbed weather formed over Lake Huron on March 30th. At first, the activity in the disturbance had very little convection and the NHC only gave the system a 10% chance of developing due to unfavorable conditions ahead of the system. Soon, however, the system started to gain more convection around its center and the winds started to increase to gale-force. By the end of March 30th, the center of low pressure transitioned to a warm-core low. A Hurricane Hunters flight was sent into the storm to see if the system was tropical or not. The Hurricane Hunters found the system was a tropical system, therefore initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Brad, with winds of 45 MPH, by the end of March 30th. After this classification, Tropical Storm Warnings got issued for parts of Northern Michigan along with Storm Surge Advisories. Brad was projected at a landfall in the northern LP of Michigan, with slight strengthening expected. Brad slightly strengthened to a 50 MPH tropical storm before making its first landfall sometime on March 31st. Despite the landfall, Brad did not weaken very much. As Brad moved over the lands of Michigan, it weakened slightly to a 45 MPH tropical storm and maintained that intensity until it moved over the warm waters of Lake Huron around noon on April 1st. The storm then rapidly intensified from a 45 MPH tropical storm to a 70 MPH strong tropical storm in less than 12 hours. Hurricane Warnings started getting posted by Environment Canada due to forecasts of Brad intensifying further to become a Category 1 hurricane. The forecasts were right, as Brad intensified quickly to a 75 MPH Category 1 hurricane as it headed for landfall in Kettle Point, Canada. Before the second landfall, Brad intensified slightly to achieve a peak intensity of 80 MPH. It made landfall in Kettle Point shortly after reaching that peak intensity. Brad started to weaken significantly as it moved over land, and the structure became somewhat disorganized. On April 3rd, Brad moved over the waters of Lake Erie as a 50 MPH tropical storm. After moving over the favorable waters of Lake Erie, Brad began to rapidly intensify once again and became a Category 1 Hurricane once again by April 4th. As the storm continued on a NNE path, it intensified to become a Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 100 MPH. When Brad got near Buffalo, it intensified slightly to achieve an intensity of 105 MPH. Brad made its third landfall in Buffalo as a 105 MPH Category 2 hurricane. Brad did not weaken passing over land and maintained 105 MPH winds when it reemerged over the warm waters of Lake Ontario. With more favorable conditions to work with, Brad began another period of rapid intensification as sustained winds increased to 110 MPH. Due to the threat to Canada, the NHC decided to put out a special advisory for 7 PM. Before the hurricane hunters took flight to investigate Brad, radar images showed Brad had suddenly stalled out after the 5 PM advisory was issued. When the hurricane hunters investigates the storm, sustained winds of 115 MPH were found in the eyewall, prompting the upgrade to a Category 3 hurricane, the second major hurricane of the season. Brad would intensify slightly more to achieve a peak intensity of 120 MPH winds, with a minimum pressure of 958 mbars. Brad made its 4th landfall on April 7th at 1:45 AM. After landfall, Brad's overall structure started to become disorganized, with wind shear and dry air affecting the system in addition to being over land. By 5 PM the same day, Brad was back at a 50 MPH Tropical Storm, though satellite images still showed an eye-like feature, which the NHC said was just a cloud-free region around the center of the storm. Brad degenerated into a extratropical cyclone later that day due to dry air interference and being over land. However, Brad would pass over the warm waters of Georgian Bay. Brad then started to undergo transition to a subtropical cyclone. By 10 AM on April 8th, Brad was a subtropical storm. Later that day, Brad made its final landfall as a 65 MPH subtropical storm and did its final transition to a post-tropical cyclone. Brad's forward speed increased as another storm started to absorb it. On April 11th, whatever was left of Brad got absorbed into another larger low pressure area. Early estimates have Brad's damage at $4.1 billion, and has killed 15 people. Impact Michigan Brad made its first landfall in Michigan as a 50 MPH tropical storm in Michigan. Despite the lack of strength on landfall, Brad had impacted Michigan with heavy rainfall, with some areas receiving 17 inches of rain. This brought rivers in the area above flood stage in the Lower Peninsula. One of the rivers, the Black River, was already near flood stage due to earlier heavy rain storms, not related to tropical activity in any way. The Black River flooding caused significant damage in Crosswell, Michigan. Mill Creek, flowing through Yale, Michigan, flooded 86% of Yale, and caused many people in Yale to be homeless. Total damage in Michigan was around $58 million. Ohio Although Brad never made landfall in Ohio, Brad brought torrential rainfall and storm surge up to 5 feet along the coastal areas. Homes in and around the Cleveland area received water damage from moderate storm surge flooding. Brad's outer bands also caused an EF3 tornado to touch down in the southern part of Cleveland, which went from the Puritas - Longmead Neighborhood to Woodland Hills, a total path length of 9.7 miles. Minor river flooding also occurred across parts of the state. Total damages in Ohio totaled around $638 million. Pennsylvania When Brad got near Pennsylvania, Brad's eyewall went onto the coastline of Pennsylvania, bringing severe storm surge flooding into Erie and its surrounding suburbs. Erie saw a peak wind gust around 107 MPH, with sustained winds around 92 MPH. Erie saw a 10 foot storm surge, with other parts of Pennsylvania seeing up to 15 feet in storm surge. River flooding in the state was surprisingly minor despite heavy rainfall amounts around 20 inches, mainly because of the rivers flowing into Lake Erie, which probably helped contribute to the storm surge heights slightly. Damage in Pennsylvania totaled $1.4 billion. New York Hurricane Brad made landfall in Buffalo, New York on April 5th as a 105 MPH Category 2 hurricane. Brad's most severe impacts in the U.S occurred around the Buffalo area, which was still struggling to recover from Hurricane Andy only 3 months earlier. Brad's storm surge destroyed already damaged structures from Andy and slowed down repair work on those structures that survived the storm. Buffalo had a storm surge height of 17 feet. Buffalo also had significant wind damage, with many homes in the area losing rooves due to the extremely high winds. River flooding also damaged structures around the Buffalo metro area. Damage in New York state from Brad totaled $2.1 billion. Ontario, Canada Brad made landfall in Toronto, Canada early on April 7th as a 120 MPH Category 3 hurricane. Toronto saw a storm surge of 17.8 feet, which flooded many of its neighborhoods and surrounding towns. Despite Brad was weakening over land, it still was able to cause severe wind damage to structures that did not get flooded by the storm surge. Around 3,500 homes in the Toronto area saw moderate to severe wind damage, with 100 homes being destroyed. Brad made its final landfall as a subtropical storm south of Parry Sound, Ontario. Damage in the Greater Toronto area totaled $2.3 billion. Damage in the area where Brad hit as a subtropical storm only totaled $6.8 million. Retirement Due to extensive damage in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, the name Brad has been retired and will never be used again for a Great Lakes Hurricane. It will be replaced with Bud for the 2023 season. Category:Great Lakes Storms Category:Category 3 hurricanes